MULTIFACTOR MODELS OF INDICATORS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CRYPTOCURRENCY MARKET
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Abstract
The article states that signifi cant volatility in the cryptocurrency market and the desire of investors to increase their own capital cause the need for formation of an optimal portfolio of assets. It has been determined that various models are created for effi cient management of profi tability and risk taking and investment decisions on the use of cryptocurrencies, but they oft en consider one or two cryptocurrencies. Cryptocurrencies market is considered as a component of the financial system, the indicators of its development are determined and the relations between them are investigated. As indicator variables, the value of cryptocurrency was used in relation to the US dollar rate and in relation to the Bitcoin rate, the volume of trading and the capitalization of cryptocurrency. Among the indicator variables for the further modeling is chosen the value of cryptographic currency. Multifactor regression models based on the value of cryptocurrencies from twenty factor variables characterizing 423 cryptocurrencies have been constructed, and the predictive properties of two fi nal models have been analyzed, including 8 and 7 signifi cant factor variables, among them: the number of preferences on the pages of the facebook service related to cryptocurrencies; number of accomplices in the development of the code, the activity of the repository of the program code cryptocurrencies and the number of changes adopted; the total number of existing and resolved questions regarding the soft ware code of cryptocurrency; the average number of online reddit service users who oversee the cryptocurrency over the past 48 hours, and the average number of comments to open topics related to cryptocurrency. Th e second model was built without taking into account the dominant effects of Bitcoin and Ethereum. Conclusions are made on the possibility of practical use of models for fi nancial analysis and planning. Positive conclusions from the study lead authors to the possibility of spreading the research methodology outlined in the article for the entire period of the functioning of the crypto market, with the identification of the most important trends in the development of indicators for its development.